Contrary to popular belief, abortion bans are very effective. Progressives will often cite Guttmacher Institute studies of abortion laws and abortion rates that show correlations rather than causal relationships. Unfortunately, these studies are useless without context and controls.
Many Democrats cite this graph as proof abortion laws don’t work and that Democratic presidents and laws reduce abortions. However, I will demonstrate how this is misleading and self-defeating.
The Supreme Court case Casey v Planned Parenthood was decided in 1992, right before Bill Clinton was president. According to Roe v Wade, laws governing abortion must pass "strict scrutiny," the standard Supreme Court test for restrictions on core constitutional rights. Casey reiterated that the right to abortion is based on the general sense of liberty and privacy guaranteed by the constitution but instead accepted the lower, undue burden criterion for examining state abortion restrictions. This means Casey allowed states to have more restrictions on abortions, and many of them did. One study provided evidence that several types of state-level anti-abortion legislation resulted in statistically significant declines in the abortion rate and the abortion ratio. Furthermore, a series of natural experiments provide further evidence that abortion restrictions are correlated with reductions in the incidence of abortion.
And, of course, we know that Roe v Wade was overturned during Biden’s Presidency. Following the Supreme Court's ruling, laws banning abortion have been imposed in at least 13 states, where most abortions are now illegal. It is anticipated that almost half of the states will try to ban abortions. While judges decide whether current or new restrictions can go into force, abortion is still permitted in some of these states for the time being. So while abortion is legal in the remaining states, access may still be limited, or restrictions may apply.
Furthermore, the Guttmacher Institute's own data shows a massive uptick in abortion laws during Barack Obama’s presidency. States passed a record 205 abortion restrictions between 2011 and 2013, more than the entire 30 years prior. As a result, many abortion providers closed down. This indicates that these laws have effectively reduced the number of abortions.
And we don’t just see these laws working in America. One study examining the effects of abortion bans in Eastern Europe also found that
…modest restrictions on abortion in Eastern Europe reduced abortion rates on the order of 25 percent, but also reduced pregnancy rates on the order of 10 percent with little net effect on births.
There are several reasons why abortion rates increase when abortion becomes less restrictive. Less restrictive abortion policies can be thought of as a reduction in the cost of abortion, which has two effects. One effect of lowering the cost of an abortion is that a woman who is already pregnant will be more likely to have an abortion and less likely to give birth. A second effect is that a woman will be more likely to become pregnant in the first place. This is because lowering the cost of abortion reduces the expected cost of a pregnancy, particularly for women who think it is likely they would terminate the pregnancy. This, in turn, reduces the optimal level of contraceptive intensity. Overall, the existing academic research paints a very clear picture. Legal protections for unborn children reduce abortion rates and save lives.
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